On the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power when there is a correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability

Kan, C;Devrim, Y;Eryilmaz, S

[Kan, Cihangir] Xian Jiaotong Liverpool Univ, Suzhou, Peoples R China.
[Devrim, Yilser] Atilim Univ, Dept Energy Syst Engn, Ankara, Turkey.
[Eryilmaz, Serkan] Atilim Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Ankara, Turkey.

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

Volume:203

DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107115

Publication Year:2020

JCR:Q1

CAS JCR:2区

ESI Discipline:ENGINEERING

Latest Impact Factor:6.188

Document Type:Journal Article

Identifier:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12791/002765

Abstract

It is important to elicit information about the potential power output of a wind turbine and a wind farm consisting of specified number of wind turbines before installation of the turbines. Such information can be used to estimate the potential power output of the wind farm which will be built in a specific region. The output power of a wind turbine is affected by two factors: wind speed and turbine availability. As shown in the literature, the correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability has an impact on the output of a wind farm. Thus, the probability distribution of the power produced by the farm depending on the wind speed distribution and turbine availability can be effectively used for planning and risk management. In this paper, the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power is derived by considering the dependence between turbine availability and the wind speed. The theoretical results are illustrated for real wind turbine reliability and wind speed data.

Keywords

Dependence Failure rate Reliability Wind speed Wind turbine

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